A new study by the Climate Energy Project (CEP) has projected almost desert like conditions in Western Kansas over the next century.

The climate projection analysis also sees water needs for crops in western Kansas more than doubling to about 8 inches per year.

“We are not agriculture experts, but we are certain that a change in the water balance of 8 inches is pretty significant for farming communities and other communities,” said Johannes Feddema, a climate researcher at the University of Kansas.

“It would have dramatic consequences as far as agriculture is concerned.  It would affect the viability of agriculture in the state of Kansas,” said said Chuck Rice, an Agronomy Professor at Kansas State University.

KU climate researchers Feddema and Nathan Brunsell conducted the regional analysis for the CEP using almost two dozen climate models against Kansas historical climate data from 1950 to 2000.

Nancy Jackson, executive director of Lawrence-based CEP, said Kansans had heard “a lot about melting sheets and polar bears.  They heard a lot about sea rise. Most Kansans really didn’t have a clear sense on how climate change would impact them specifically.”

The researchers found that temperatures will increase in all of Kansas by 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, although some regions may experience even higher increases — for example, southwest Kansas could warm by 8 degrees.

By about 2060, average winter temperatures probably will be above freezing. Days when temperatures are above 65 could increase by 50%.

Southwestern Kansas could see a “water deficit” — the water needed for crops — of as much as 8 inches per year. Currently, the water needed for irrigation is up to 4 inches in some places.  THE END.